Unpredictable Polls and Uncharted Policies in the 2024 Elections

With the 2024 elections just 13 days away, everyone has one question: What happens next? The stakes are particularly high for health policy, but there’s a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the predictions—especially when it comes to polling data. As we’ve seen in recent elections, polls don’t always tell the whole story. So, while health care and the economy are top concerns for voters, it’s unclear how this will play out once the votes are counted.

The Polling Puzzle

If recent elections have taught us anything, it’s that polling can be hit or miss. The 2020 election revealed significant polling miscalculations, particularly underestimating certain voter groups. Now, heading into 2024, the polls show tight races for both the presidency and congressional seats.

Health care remains a key issue, with voters worried about rising costs and access to care. But how much weight will those concerns carry at the ballot box? It’s clear voters care about health policy, but other issues—like inflation and immigration—are also front and center. In fact, the economy ranks as the most important of 22 issues that 52% of voters say will influence their choice for president. Comparatively, health care ranks seventh in the list of importance, with just 37% indicating that it is “extremely important.”¹

This shift likely stems from the absence of any particularly radical health care proposals taking center stage. Vice President Kamala Harris has recently moved away from her previous support for Medicare for All, now focusing on expanding the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and adding a new home care benefit under Medicare. In contrast, former President Donald Trump has yet to release a detailed health care plan.

No matter the election outcome, one thing is certain: health policy could be in for some changes. A Democratic victory might bring more support for expanding the ACA and its subsidies. On the other hand, a Republican win could revive efforts to scale back parts of the ACA, such as Medicaid expansion or subsidies for health plans. Both outcomes carry significant implications for health care access and affordability.

While the ACA isn’t the headline topic it once was, it still plays a massive role in how millions of Americans get health care. And the outcome of this election could determine whether the ACA sees more growth or faces new challenges. Beyond that, broader health policy reforms—like efforts to control prescription drug prices—could gain momentum depending on the election’s results.

What We Should Be Watching

Given how uncertain the polls are this time around, everyone in the health care area—providers, payers, and manufacturers—needs to keep a close eye on multiple scenarios. If we see a shift in political power, we could be looking at major changes in areas like drug pricing regulations, Medicaid coverage, and health plan reimbursement models. Being prepared for a range of outcomes will be crucial for staying ahead.

That said, it’s not just about reacting to policy changes. Engaging in ongoing conversations around health policy, whether it’s expanding coverage or addressing cost concerns, will also be key. Staying flexible and informed will help industry players—big and small—adapt to whatever comes next.

The 2024 elections have the potential to significantly reshape health policy in the US. But with the polls as close as they are, and uncertainty around their accuracy, predicting exactly what will happen is tricky.

Remember, regardless of your political affiliation, staying informed about health care policy is crucial. Let’s keep pushing for the substantive policy discussions we deserve.

Happy voting!

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References

1. Brenan M. Economy most important issue to 2024 presidential vote. Gallup. October 9, 2024. Accessed October 22, 2024. https://news.gallup.com/poll/651719/economy-important-issue-2024-presidential-vote.aspx