Patent Cliff to Cause Drugmakers to Lose $65 Billion by 2019
Patent expirations on some big-name medications, including quetiapine fumarate, olanzapine, and aripiprazole, will cause drug companies to lose an estimated $65 billion in sales by 2019, according to the research and consulting firm GlobalData.
AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, and Otsuka are among the pharmaceutical companies to be hit the hardest, according to GlobalData, with significant losses focused in the central nervous system (CNS) treatment sector.
“GlobalData estimates AstraZeneca’s share to have been around 9% in 2010, which has now fallen to only 3% in 2013,” said Adam Dion, MS, GlobalData analyst.
After losing its patent on olanzapine in 2011, Eli Lilly saw sales of the drug plummet from more than $5 billion in 2010 to $1.2 billion in 2013. The drop in sales had much to do with a subsequent drop in the drugmaker’s market share, from 14.3% in 2010 to 11.2% in 2013, according to Mr. Dion.
Sales of Otsuka’s antipsychotic aripiprazole were strong in the CNS segment in 2013, Mr. Dion said, reaching $9.5 billion, though that too is about to change, the analyst predicted.
“[Aripiprazole’s] upcoming U.S. patent expiration in 2015 means the drug will lose a massive $6.2 billion by 2019 as the result of generic competition, making it the biggest victim of the pharmaceutical industry’s current patent cliff,” Mr. Dion said.—Jolynn Tumolo
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