By 2050, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase from an estimated 57.4 worldwide in 2019 to 152.8 million, according to a study published in The Lancet Public Health.

“Due to increases in population growth and population aging, huge increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia can be expected in 2050,” wrote researchers. “Given that there are currently no available disease-modifying therapies, appropriate emphasis should be placed on efforts to address known modifiable risk factors. Multimodal interventions have shown some success in delaying the rate of cognitive decline and present a promising approach to risk reduction and dementia prevention.”

The study used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study to project dementia prevalence globally, by world region, and by country.

Despite a near tripling of people living with dementia globally, the age-standardized prevalence is projected to remain stable, according to the study. Furthermore, the pattern of more women with dementia than men with dementia is expected to continue: the 2019 female-to-male ratio of 1.69 is projected to be 1.67 in 2050.

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The smallest percentage increases in dementia cases—53% and 74%—are anticipated in the high-income Asia Pacific and Western Europe regions, respectively, the study found. On the other end of the spectrum are North Africa and the Middle East, with a projected increase of 367%, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, with a projected 357% increase by 2050. Researchers attributed the increases in Sub-Saharan Africa to population growth and in East Asia to population aging.

The study projected that every country would see increases in the number of residents with dementia. In the United States, cases are expected to increase 100%, from 5.2 million in 2019 to 10.5 million in 2050.

“The country-level specificity of our estimates will allow policy makers and decision makers to understand the expected increases in the number of individuals with dementia and the drivers of these increases in a given geographical setting,” researchers wrote. “This information might be helpful for public health planning efforts, particularly as they relate to scaling up the availability of resources required to meet the needs of individuals with dementia and their caregivers.”

Reference

GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators. Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Public Health. Published online January 6, 2022. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00249-8