Vizient Forecasts Rising Health Care Costs, Driven by Specialty Medications and Supply Chain Pressures
Health care costs are set to rise in 2025, with Vizient forecasting a 3.84% increase in pharmacy spending and a 2.3% increase in nonpharmaceutical supply spending from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026, according to the Winter 2025 Spend Management Outlook by Vizient, Inc.
The latest Spend Management Outlook from Vizient provides insights into the factors driving these increases, including the growing use of specialty medications, shifting care settings, and supply chain disruptions.
“Given the wide-ranging challenges across all dimensions of spend, siloed solutions are no longer sufficient for effective forecasting. Our unified approach aims to provide actionable insights into the product categories with the highest spend while highlighting shared trends across these critical areas of resource investment,” said Steven Lucio, senior principal of insights and intelligence at Vizient.
The report highlights the increasing role of outpatient and ambulatory care settings in driving pharmaceutical costs. GLP-1s remain among the top drugs contributing to spending growth, with ambulatory care pharmacy costs projected to rise 3.96%, outpacing the 3% growth expected in acute care settings. Specialty medications, which account for 54% of total US drug spending, continue to be a key driver of cost inflation. Overall, spending on specialty and complex medications is projected to increase by 4.44%.
Beyond pharmaceuticals, Vizient projects a 2.3% increase in nonpharmacy health care supply costs. Price pressures stem from tariffs on Chinese-manufactured medical and surgical products, including gloves, needles, syringes, and face masks. While Vizient successfully lobbied to delay tariffs on enteral syringes until 2026, providers should prepare for ongoing supply chain challenges. Other cost increases expected in health care operations include construction (4.9%), water services (5.1%), and medical gases (4%).
With these cost pressures, health care organizations will need to prioritize strategic forecasting. "We are certainly aware of the potential for additional changes in tariffs with the change in administration," said Jeff King, research and intelligence director at Vizient. "These dynamics are part of the reason strategic forecasting should be a routine part of provider operations and not just an annual budgeting exercise."
The Spend Management Outlook also identifies high-impact drugs expected to enter the market in 2025, including new oncology treatments such as amivantamab and camrelizumab, which could carry wholesale acquisition costs between $170 000 and $525 000 per treatment. Additionally, the expansion of cell and gene therapy will require significant investment in administrative and financial infrastructure to support patient access and reimbursement.
Vizient’s projections are based on client purchasing data from October 2023 to September 2024, alongside an analysis of public sources such as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Department of Agriculture. As the health care landscape evolves, the report emphasizes the importance of integrated expense management and proactive planning to navigate rising costs effectively.
Reference
BusinessWire. Vizient forecasts a 3.84% rise in pharmacy spending. Published January 28, 2025. Accessed February 12, 2025. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250128919039/en/Vizient-Forecasts-a-3.84-Rise-in-Pharmacy-Spending
