Current Flu Shots Just 18% Effective, CDC Now Says

March 03--This season's flu vaccine is even less effective than predicted, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But despite growing evidence of its paltry potency, doctors swear that those who got the shot didn't waste their time or money.

Last week, the CDC announced that the current flu shot was just 18 percent effective against the predominant strain of contagious respiratory illness circulating this year. Throughout this season, the CDC's estimates of the vaccine's effectiveness have gotten progressively lower. In December, the agency reported the vaccine was 48 percent effective against the prevailing strain, but that number had plummeted to 23 percent by January.

Despite the CDC downgrading the vaccine's power yet again, local experts insisted that it's not without value.

"Even 18 percent effectiveness is better than zero," said Dr. Greg Dworkin, chief of pediatric pulmonolgy at Danbury Hospital.

Others echoed that sentiment, including Dr. Zane Saul, chief of infectious disease at Bridgeport Hospital. He said the major strain circulating this season, H3N2, has a high risk of complications, and that even if vaccinated people get the flu, they might not get it as severely as those who don't get the shot.

"It still helps to cut down on morbidity and mortality," Saul said. "No matter how effective the shot is, it's still better to get the shot than not get it."

And the story of this year's flu vaccine might not be entirely written yet, Dworkin said, since the dominant strain of flu can change throughout the course of a season. This year's vaccine has been shown to be much more effective at fighting some other strains.

"It didn't work as well on the A strain (of which H3N2 is a subtype), but it's going to be great against the B strains," he said.

This flu season has been deemed a fairly harsh one, both nationally and in Connecticut, but experts said the illness has passed its peak.

Nationally, the CDC reports that even though flu activity remains high, it has declined in recent weeks -- a trend that Connecticut has echoed. The state's Department of Public Health reported that as of Feb. 21, emergency department visits attributed to fever/flu syndrome fell over the preceding few weeks.

Pneumonia, a common complication of the flu, is also declining, the state reports. However, flu is still widespread in the state, and at least 3,900 people have tested positive for the flu in Connecticut this season.

Locally, hospitals also reported seeing fewer flu patients, though business is still brisk.

"There has been a drop-off, but it's not huge," Saul said.

There's also a possibility of a second wave of flu, which Dworkin said sometimes hits in March. But, he added, it's likely that the worst is over in Connecticut.

"We sometimes get a little double peak," Dworkin said. "But it's not going to be like it was in late December or early January."

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