UW Expert Warns of Swine Flu Pandemic Potential

MADISON, Wis. --

The state's leading infectious disease expert is warning of a possible flu pandemic because of the swine flu outbreak.

Mexico is the hardest hit with about 149 deaths in that country. Twenty of those are confirmed to be the swine flu. Meanwhile, nearly 2,000 have been hospitalized since the first report on April 13.

Dr. Dennis Maki, of the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine & Public Health, said that all signs are pointing toward a large outbreak, rivaling the worldwide flu pandemic of 1918.

Maki said that there are many reasons this situation might be even worse than the 1918 flu pandemic. He said that this is because of the preliminary mortality rate associated with this particular strain.

Maki said it's not time to panic but he said people need to beware.

"The strain is very different than any other influenza strain that have been seen in the world in the last 75 years," he said. "It looks vey much like the 1918 strain, in terms of its features, it's biological features. And what's very disturbing is, if the Mexican data (is) accurate, there's a very high mortality rate -- like around maybe 8 percent."

Maki said that they still have to confirm those numbers, but they said that the 1918 pandemic had a mortality rate of 2 to 3 percent. He said that the strains of flu that have been common in the last 50 years have had a mortality of about one-tenth of a percent, or one in 1,000.

Maki said it's now more important than ever to practice common sense hygiene. He said that washing hands with soap and hot water, disinfecting common area surfaces and avoiding coughing or sneezing on or near other people.

He said the federal government is ready to take any needed action, but he also said this is a serious issue.

He said come next fall, he would be surprised if we weren't dealing with some sort of global swine flu pandemic.