New Risk Score Tool Accurately Predicts Hospitalization Risk in COPD Patients

Researchers have developed a new risk-score stratification tool that helps identify chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients who are at a higher risk of hospitalization due to flare-ups.

"We believe the ability to effectively identify these patients and intervene earlier in the course of a COPD exacerbation may help provide them with a higher quality of life, and potentially reduce medical costs associated with preventable hospital admissions," Denitza Blagev, MD, a pulmonary and critical care physician at Intermountain Medical Center and medical director for quality for Intermountain Healthcare, said in a press statement.

Researchers at Intermountain Healthcare developed and validated the new tool—the Laboratory-based Intermountain Validated Exacerbation (LIVE) Score—using more than 132,000 patient records. The tool uses laboratory tests in order to determine whether patients are at a higher or lower risk of hospital admission in real time. In an effort to avoid hospitalizations, the research team posits that this tool may help clinicians better care for COPD patients by predicting high-risk patients who may benefit from early intervention treatments.

During the study period, the researchers found that a majority of patients who experienced COPD exacerbations were in the two highest risk groups. Between 2009 and 2016, the LIVE risk score was validated among 48,871 patients who received a COPD diagnosis at Intermountain Healthcare. Further, the tool validated roughly 83,134 patient records from the Veterans Affairs National Health System.

According to the researchers, by identifying when earlier interventions may be useful, the scoring tool will allow for improved COPD patient care on a health system level.

“Because the LIVE Score is laboratory-based and reproducible, we are able to calculate the LIVE score electronically and identify high risk patients at the time of contact,” Dr Blagey noted. “We can also identify patients based on data previously collected, even if they are not in the hospital currently, and can begin to develop interventions targeting these highest risk patients.”

Dr Blagev also stressed that a further study is needed to examine the utility of the LIVE Score as a population health strategy in COPD patients.

—Julie Gould

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