Global Burden of CRC Expected to Grow Through 2040

Colorectal cancer (CRC), the third most common cancer globally, is projected to become more prevalent in the next 2 decades, with 1.6 million deaths attributable to the disease by 2040, according to new research.

Investigators gathered data from the GLOBOCAN database for 2020 to calculate the incidence  of CRC standardized by age and mortality rates according to sex, world region, nation, and the Human Development Index (HDI) for 185 countries. HDI, compiled by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), is a statistical composite of life expectancy, education, and per capita income.

The researchers calculated estimated cases of CRC and deaths in the year 2040 According to global demographics as projected by HDI, the researchers estimated that more than 1.9 million cases of CRC and 930,000 deaths due to the disease occurred in 2020. The highest incidence rates of 40.6 per 100,000 were seen in the regions of Australia/New Zealand and Europe. The lowest rates were found in a number of regions of Africa and southern Asia, where incidence was projected at 4.4 per 100,000. The highest mortality rates were seen in Eastern Europe (20.2 per 100,000) and the lowest in southern Asia (2.5 per 100 000).

“The burden of CRC is projected to increase to 3.2 million new cases and 1.6 million deaths by 2040 with most cases predicted to occur in high or very high HDI countries,” the authors wrote. They noted that CRC is largely preventable through modification of risk factors and early detection and excision of precancerous polyps and lesions.

“With increasing rates in transitioning countries and younger adults, there is a pressing need to better understand and act on findings to avert future cases and deaths from the disease,” the authors concluded. “The geographical and temporal burden of this cancer provides insights into risk factor prevalence and progress in cancer control strategies.”

—Rebecca Mashaw

Reference:

Morgan E, Arnold M, Gini A, et al. Global burden of colorectal cancer in 2020 and 2040: incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN. Gut. Published Online First: September 8, 2022.