Hip, Knee Replacement Rates Will Increase More Than 200% by 2040

The use of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee joint arthroplasty (TKA) are projected to significantly increase in the United States from 2020 to 2040 among both men and women and across all age groups, according to study findings.

For the projections, the researchers used polynomial regression to analyze combined data from the 2000–2014 US National Inpatient Sample and the Census Bureau to determine nonlinearity and interactions between the variables. Sensitivity analyses were also performed with a negative binomial regression to account for overdispersion.

THA was predicted to steadily increase from 2020 to 2040 with the following annual counts: a 34% increase to 498,000 in 2020; a 75% increase to 652,000 in 2025; a 129% increase to 850,000 in 2030; and a 284% increase to 1,429,000 in 2040.

Primary TKA was predicted to increase with the following annual counts: a 56% increase to 1,065,000 in 2020; a 110% increase to 1,272,000 in 2025; a 182% increase to 1,921,000 in 2030; and a 401% increase to 3,416,000 in 2040.

“Significant increases in use of THA and TKA are expected in the United States in the future, if the current trend continues,” the researchers concluded. “A policy change may be needed to meet increased demand.”

—Colleen Murphy

Reference:

Singh JA, Yu S, Chen L, Cleveland JD. Rates of total joint replacement in the United States: future projections to 2020–2040 using the National Inpatient Sample [published online April 15, 2019]. J Rheumatol. doi:10.3899/jrheum.170990.