Analytics Firm Projects Continued Rise in SUD Rates

Social isolation and pandemic-related stress are projected to fuel a continued rise in substance use and poor substance use outcomes across the US, according to a report released last week by the predictive analytics firm Prealize.

In the company’s second annual State of Heath Report, healthcare utilization for substance use services is projected to rise by 4%. The calculation is based on an analysis of claims data from more than 2 million health plan members between 2017 and 2021. The analysis includes patients of all ages, across all lines of business, including commercial, Medicare Advantage, and Medicaid managed care plans.

Citing findings from the American Psychological Association, Prealize noted that individuals struggling with SUD face a higher risk of having a weakened immune system and are more likely to develop COVID-19 with worse-than-normal outcomes, including an increased likelihood of hospitalization and/or premature death. Further, the company said that providers reported treating alcohol use 75% more frequently and illicit drug use 45% more often, according to data from the 2021 Anthem Blue Cross State of the Nation’s Mental Health Report.

“Health plans cannot afford to wait to address the behavioral health crisis—more proactive interventions are the best way to keep these conditions and the costs associated with them from escalating,” Prealize wrote in its report. “A behavioral health patient who has regular therapy costs on average $3,000 less per year than a member who does not get regular behavioral health therapy.”

Prealize added that utilization of mental healthcare services by individuals under the age of 18 is projected to increase by 8.5% in 2022. The firm recommends that health plan leaders take a proactive approach to identify at-risk members and work with other stakeholders to prevent further crisis.

“We should not have to wait for a teenager to show up in the ER in crisis,” Ryan Panchadsaram, adviser to the chairman of Kleiner Perkins, former deputy chief technology officer of the US, and a Prealize board advisor, said in a statement. “The tools are available to precisely predict this risk and engage sooner with the right care. Plans and providers can get ahead of it. It is important to act now.”